After reaching USD 21.3 bilhão em 2025, the China baby formula market is expected to enter a period of contraction, with value sales forecast to decline to USD 20.0 bilhão por 2030, implying a negative compound annual growth rate of 1.3%. The downturn reflects entrenched structural pressure from a persistently falling birth rate, although the pace of decline has narrowed materially compared with earlier years, suggesting the market is approaching a more stable, albeit lower, base. Despite the continued reduction in newborn numbers, segments of the category are demonstrating resilience, underscoring an increasingly uneven growth profile.
Special baby formula has emerged as the strongest value growth engine within the market. Rising diagnosis rates of cow’s milk protein allergy, lactose intolerance and digestive-related conditions, combined with improving consumer understanding of clinical nutrition, are driving stronger acceptance of specialist products. Parents are showing a greater willingness to pay a premium for formulas offering targeted functional benefits, while new entrants are actively positioning themselves in this high-potential segment, further expanding consumer choice. In the near term, a temporary birth uptick generated by a short-lived fertility rebound has continued to support demand for follow-on and growing-up formulas through a lag effect, partially cushioning the broader market decline.
Consumer behaviour is becoming increasingly polarised. Households that choose to have children are displaying stronger economic resilience and a gradual recovery in spending confidence. Affluent families continue to trade up toward science-backed, differentiated nutrition solutions, while the mass market relies more heavily on price competition and promotional activity to defend share. This divergence is being reinforced by regulatory dynamics, as stringent formula registration requirements accelerate industry consolidation and strengthen the position of large, established brands.
Looking ahead, overall sales are likely to remain under pressure, but structural transformation will continue to reshape the market. Consumption is becoming more K-shaped, with value-oriented products favoured in lower-tier cities and rural areas, while urban, higher-income parents drive growth in premium and functional formulas, often accessed via cross-border e-commerce. Increasingly proactive infant health management and the wider adoption of mixed feeding are boosting demand for products containing specific functional ingredients that support digestion, immunity, skeletal development and cognitive outcomes. Organic and clean-label formulas are regaining traction as traceability and safety become more salient purchase criteria. At the same time, digital and technological innovation is shifting competition away from pure price dynamics toward direct consumer engagement, with brands investing in private traffic ecosystems, loyalty programmes, livestreaming and rapid delivery. Enhanced traceability tools are strengthening trust, and in a category where emotional assurance outweighs price considerations, brands that consistently deliver transparency, professional support and sustained relevance are best positioned to build durable competitive advantages.
Targeted at business leaders and market strategists, this report offers authoritative insight into the baby formula sector in China. Incorporating historical data from 2020 onward and updated projections to 2030, it supports confident, data-driven decision-making.
What’s Inside the Report
Annual market size figures expressed in (Tons/CNY/USD), spanning 2020 para 2030. The dataset includes both historical actuals and forecasts, along with CAGR calculations for historical and projected periods.
Market Segmentation
The following outlines the segmentation of the China baby formula market:
Product type – e.g., standard infant formula, follow-up formula, growing-up formula, special formulas
Packaging type – e.g., carton bottles, flexible packaging, metal cans and bottles, paper containers, plastic bottles
Distribution channel – e.g., e-commerce, hypermarkets, others
Macroeconomic & Demographic Indicators
Supporting context includes:
Total population
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Per capita consumption
Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP
These variables enhance understanding of consumption potential and macroeconomic trends affecting the market.
Competitive Landscape: Market Share Analysis
Updated market share data for major industry players in China baby formula market is included in the report, providing a snapshot of current competitive alignment. Key players covered include: Abbott Laboratories, Beijing Sanyuan Foods Company Limited, China Feihe Limited, China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, Danone S.A., Hangzhou Beingmate Group Co., Ltd., Health & Happiness Group International Holdings Ltd. (H&H Group), Heilongjiang Wondersun Dairy Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Mead Johnson (Guangzhou) Ltd., Nestle S.A., Royal FrieslandCampina N.V., Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd., Synutra Inc., The a2 Milk Company Limited, Wissun Group, etc.
Market share data is presented for top-performing companies in the overall baby formula sector, as well as for individual segments such as infant formula, standard infant formula, follow-up formula, growing-up formula and special formulas, enabling a granular view of competitive dynamics.
Market share analysis covered in the report:
China infant formula market share
China standard infant formula market share
China follow-up formula market share
China growing-up formula market share
China special formulas market share
Why Choose This Report?
Designed as a concise, data-rich market snapshot, this report is ideal for stakeholders seeking timely, reliable, and strategic insights. Whether you’re an investor, operator, consultant, or supplier, the data-driven structure supports confident, evidence-based decision-making.
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Deliverables Include
Professionally structured PDF report
Full EXCEL databook with year-by-year figures and multi-dimensional segmentation from 2020 para 2030
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Market Segmentation
Market Overview
China Baby Formula Market – Product Type Analysis
China Baby Formula Market – Packaging Type Analysis
China Baby Formula Market – Distribution Channel Analysis
Company Shares Analysis
Abbott Laboratories
Beijing Sanyuan Foods Company Limited
China Feihe Limited
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited
Danone S.A.
Hangzhou Beingmate Group Co., Ltd.
Health & Happiness Group International Holdings Ltd. (H&H Group)
Heilongjiang Wondersun Dairy Co., Ltd.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
Mead Johnson (Guangzhou) Ltd.
Nestle S.A.
Royal FrieslandCampina N.V.
Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd.
Synutra Inc.
The a2 Milk Company Limited
Wissun Group
Macroeconomic Data and Forecast
Research Methodology
Disclaimer
FIGURES AND TABLES
Table China Baby Formula Market 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market, Net Growth, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market, Growth Rates, 2020-2030
Table China Baby Formula Market by Product Type, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Product Type, CAGR Historic and Forecast, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Product Type, 2020-2030
Table China Baby Formula Market by Packaging Type, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Packaging Type, CAGR Historic and Forecast, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Packaging Type, 2020-2030
Table China Baby Formula Market by Distribution Channel, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Distribution Channel, CAGR Historic and Forecast, 2020-2030
Chart China Baby Formula Market by Distribution Channel, 2020-2030
Table China Baby Formula Market Share (%), by Companies, 2020-2025
Chart China Baby Formula Market, by Companies, 2025
Table China Baby Formula Market Share (%), by Brands, 2020-2025
Chart China Baby Formula Market, by Brands, 2025
Table China – Population (Millions) and Forecast
Table China – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Forecast
Table China – Gross Domestic Product and Forecast
Table China Baby Formula Market: Spend as a Proportion of GDP (%)
Table China Baby Formula Market: Consumption per Capita (Population)